8 Out of 10: Coingecko Research Uncovers Crypto's Festive 'Santa Claus Rally' Trends
Discover Coingecko’s research on the Santa Claus rally in crypto markets, revealing trends of festive gains and occasional dips over the past decade.
8 Out of 10: Coingecko Research Uncovers Crypto's Festive 'Santa Claus Rally' Trends
Holiday Cheer or Crypto Chill? Analyzing the Santa Claus Rally Effect
According to a detailed report by Coingecko analyst Lim Yu Qian, crypto markets have shown the "Santa Claus rally" effect in eight of the past ten years. This trend refers to the market cheer during the final five trading days of the year and the first two of the new year. From 2014 to 2023, total crypto market capitalization increased between 0.69% and 11.87% in this festive window (Dec. 27 to Jan. 2).
Pre-Christmas Trends: Mixed Festive Results
Before Christmas, the market has seen rallies only five times in the last decade. Gains during Dec. 19–25 ranged from 0.15% to 11.56%, though some years recorded significant losses. For instance, in 2017, the crypto market plummeted by 12.12% amid the ICO bubble burst, marking a holiday downturn.
Bitcoin's Santa Rally Performance
Bitcoin, often the bellwether for crypto trends, followed similar patterns:
- Pre-Christmas Gains: 7 out of 10 years, with returns from 0.20% to 13.19%.
- Post-Christmas Gains: Positive movements five times, ranging from 0.33% to 10.86%.
Bitcoin’s biggest loss occurred in 2017 when it dropped 21.30% before Christmas.
Double Santa Rallies: Rare Yet Celebrated
The report also highlights years when markets rallied both before and after Christmas, termed as "double rallies." This phenomenon occurred only three times in the past decade:
- 2016: Pre-Christmas gains of 11.56% and post-Christmas gains of 10.56%.
- 2018: Modest increases of 1.31% pre-Christmas and 4.53% post-Christmas.
- 2023: Gains of 4.05% before Christmas and 3.64% after.
A Rollercoaster of Festive Returns
Despite occasional patterns, Coingecko cautions that the Santa Claus rally in crypto markets is far from a reliable trend. December market performance has shown extreme volatility, reflecting the unpredictable nature of the crypto sector.
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