From Election Excitement to Post-Election Doldrums: December on Polymarket

From Election Excitement to Post-Election Doldrums: December on Polymarket

Polymarket Records Post-Election Lull

Polymarket, a blockchain-powered prediction platform, saw record activity in November 2024, largely fueled by speculation around the U.S. Presidential Election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Users accurately predicted Donald Trump’s victory even before Election Day concluded. However, post-election, trading activity significantly slowed, with trading volumes and open interest experiencing notable declines.

Decline in Trading Metrics

According to Dune Analytics, Polymarket’s December trading volume reached $1.7 billion as of December 29, far below November’s $2.57 billion and October’s $2.28 billion. Despite this dip, December’s volume still surpassed September’s $503 million, offering a silver lining to an otherwise muted month.

Open interest—a key indicator of market engagement—plummeted from a peak of $474 million on November 5 to just $117 million by late December. This steep decline underscores the post-election cooldown in user activity.

Increase in Active Traders

Interestingly, December saw an uptick in the number of active traders. The platform recorded 309,228 active traders this month, up from November’s 293,705. This growth suggests that while trading volumes have declined, user participation remains robust, indicating continued interest in Polymarket’s offerings.

Popular Markets and Predictions

Polymarket’s politically charged wagers remain a significant draw. Popular markets include predictions on topics such as:

• “Biden’s Pardons” – Speculating on presidential clemency actions.

• “Trump Picks” – Forecasting the confirmation of Trump’s cabinet or judicial appointments.

• “Speaker of the House” – Betting on the next U.S. House Speaker.

Additionally, markets focused on bitcoin’s (BTC) price trends and potential U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts continue to attract users.

Looking Ahead to 2025

As 2025 approaches, it remains to be seen how Polymarket’s activity metrics will evolve. While the post-election doldrums have impacted volumes and open interest, the platform’s growing user base indicates sustained interest in blockchain-based prediction markets. Future developments, particularly in political and financial spheres, may reignite activity on the platform.