$150K Bitcoin by 2025? Polymarket Bettors Split Between Long-Term Optimism and Near-Term Hesitation

$150K Bitcoin by 2025? Polymarket Bettors Split Between Long-Term Optimism and Near-Term Hesitation

Polymarket bettors are showing mixed confidence in bitcoin's future, with long-term optimism contrasting near-term caution. Recent activity on the platform highlights the divergent views on whether bitcoin will reach $100,000 by the end of this year or skyrocket to $150,000 by early 2025.

Bitcoin’s Future Price Under the Microscope

On Friday, Dec. 27, Polymarket hosted a high-stakes wager drawing $2,517,135 in betting volume. The bet, set to resolve on Dec. 31, 2024, suggests only a 30% chance of bitcoin (BTC) reaching $100,000 within the year.

At 3 p.m. Eastern on Friday, bitcoin was steady at $94,400, coming off its record peak of $108,364 on Dec. 17. Polymarket’s rules for the $100,000 wager are clear:

"This market will immediately resolve to 'Yes' if any Binance 1-minute candle for bitcoin (BTCUSDT) between December 23, 2024, 14:50, and December 31, 2024, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final 'High' price of $100,000.00 or higher. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No.'"

$150K by 2025? A Split Sentiment

Polymarket bettors are also speculating on where bitcoin's price will land by March 31, 2025. The betting options span from $70,000 to $200,000, with key milestones at $90,000, $110,000, and $120,000 capturing significant interest:

• $90,000: 85% probability

• $110,000: 64% probability

• $120,000: 45% probability

• $130,000: 34% probability

• $150,000: 21% probability

• $200,000: 9% probability

This distribution reveals an intriguing gap: while confidence in a short-term return to $100,000 is subdued, long-term optimism remains strong. The $90,000 prediction leads with high probability, but as targets climb beyond $120,000, confidence begins to wane.

Long-Term Optimism Amid Near-Term Uncertainty

The contrasting sentiments between near-term and long-term betting odds sketch a market divided. Investors appear cautious about bitcoin’s ability to deliver quick gains, yet many believe in its potential to achieve significant milestones by 2025. This dynamic indicates a market ripe for volatility but backed by enduring optimism.

As the crypto market evolves, Polymarket’s betting trends offer a window into the collective sentiment shaping bitcoin's future. Whether cautious or bullish, all eyes will remain fixed on BTC’s trajectory in the coming years.